The 6-month and 12-month markdown pattern
First-party Sony exclusives (Spider-Man 2, God of War Ragnarok, Returnal, Horizon Forbidden West) and Microsoft exclusives (Starfield, Forza Horizon 5, Halo Infinite, Sea of Thieves) launch at $69.99 and discount on a roughly 6-month cadence at Amazon, Best Buy, GameStop, and Walmart.
The first cut to $49.99 typically lands 4 to 6 months post-launch. The next cut to $29.99 to $39.99 lands at the 12-month mark, often timed with Black Friday or Prime Day.
For shoppers willing to wait 6 to 12 months from launch, the markdown cycle catches the same first-party game at 30 to 60 percent off the launch price.
What the actual data shows
Spider-Man 2 PS5 launched October 20, 2023 at $69.99. The first cut to $49.99 landed around late March 2024 (month 5). The second cut to $39.99 hit during Black Friday 2024 (month 13). Some Black Friday promotions at Walmart and Target included Spider-Man 2 in PS5 console bundles for effectively $34.99 to $39.99 standalone equivalent.
God of War Ragnarok PS5 launched November 9, 2022 at $69.99. The first cut to $49.99 landed around late April 2023 (month 5 to 6). The cut to $29.99 hit during Black Friday 2023 (month 12) and held through 2024.
Starfield Xbox Series X launched September 6, 2023 at $69.99. The cut to $49.99 landed around late February 2024 (month 5). The cut to $29.99 hit during Black Friday 2024 (month 14).
The pattern is consistent: month 5 to 6 brings the first significant cut, month 12 to 14 brings the second cut to roughly half launch price.
How retailer-specific bundle pricing extends the savings
Walmart-exclusive game variants and bundle SKUs sometimes see a deeper Black Friday cut than the standard SKU. The 2024 Spider-Man 2 Walmart-exclusive bundle dropped to $34.99 vs $39.99 standard SKU at Black Friday.
Target Buy Two Get One Free promotions on first-party games run roughly 4 times per year (Memorial Day, Labor Day, Black Friday, Easter). Eligible titles span PS5, Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch, and PC physical releases. Buying three first-party games during a Buy Two Get One Free promo costs 33 percent less than 3 separate purchases.
GameStop trade-in value on the launch-day game can recover $10 to $20 toward another title within the first 60 days post-launch. After that, trade-in value drops sharply.
Why digital pricing follows the same pattern as physical
For shoppers buying digital (PS Store, Microsoft Store, Steam) rather than physical disc, the markdown cycle is essentially identical. Sony and Microsoft coordinate digital pricing with retailer-physical pricing during major promotional windows.
Some PS Plus Premium and Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscriptions include first-party launch titles in the rotating game library, eliminating the markdown wait entirely for subscribers willing to play through the subscription rather than own the game outright.
When physical disc beats digital
For collectors and resellers, physical disc has resale value. A Spider-Man 2 physical disc can be traded in or sold privately for $15 to $25 after completing the game, recovering 30 to 40 percent of the $39.99 Black Friday purchase price. Digital purchases have no resale value.
For pure single-player completion gameplay, digital is more convenient (no disc swapping, no shelf space). The markdown timing is identical to physical for most major releases.
How to set monitoring intervals for first-party games
For specific first-party launch titles, monthly monitoring is enough through month 5. Switch to daily during the month-5 to month-7 window when the first cut typically hits. Switch back to monthly through month 11. Switch to daily again during the month-12 to month-14 window for the second cut, often coinciding with Black Friday.
For Walmart-exclusive bundle SKUs and Target Buy Two Get One Free promo windows, weekly monitoring during the windows catches the bundle launches when they appear.
What does not follow the 6-month pattern
Multiplayer-focused first-party games (Helldivers 2, Fortnite collaborations, MultiVersus, Apex Legends physical) sometimes hold launch pricing longer because the active player base sustains demand. The 6-month markdown pattern weakens on these.
Annual sports titles (Madden, FIFA, NBA 2K, MLB The Show) follow a different calendar tied to the sport season. They typically launch in August or October at $69.99 and drop to $39.99 by December or January as the next-season ad cycle begins.
The bottom line
For most first-party Sony and Microsoft exclusives, waiting 6 months from launch catches the first cut to $49.99, and waiting 12 months catches the second cut to $29.99 to $39.99. Walmart-exclusive bundle SKUs and Target Buy Two Get One Free promos extend the savings further during major retail windows.
For shoppers building a backlog of first-party titles, patience plus URL tracking on specific games catches each markdown at the exact minute it hits. Across 6 to 10 first-party titles per year, the cumulative savings vs launch-day pricing exceeds $200 to $400.
*DiffScout tracks any first-party game URL on Amazon, Best Buy, GameStop, or Walmart and alerts when markdowns hit. Try it free →*